THREE ADVANCING WHITE
SOLIDERS
The
opposite of the three black crows is three advancing white soldiers or, more
commonly, three white soldiers (Exhibit 4.28). Like much of the candle
terminology, this pattern has a military association. It is a group of three
long white candles with consecutively higher closes. If this pattern appears at
a low-price area or after a period of stable prices, then it is a sign of
strength ahead.
Exhibit
4.28. Three White Soldiers
The
three white soldiers are a gradual and steady rise with each white line opening
within or near the prior session's white real body. Each of the white candles
should close at, or near, its highs. It is a healthy method for the market to
rise (although if the white candles are very extended, one should be cautious
about an overbought market).
Exhibit
4.29. Advance Block
If
the second and third or just the third candle shows signs of weakening, it is
an advance block pattern (see Exhibit 4.29). This means the rally is running
into trouble and longs should protect themselves. Be especially cautious about
this pattern during a mature uptrend. Signs of weakening could be progressively
smaller white real bodies or relatively long upper shadows.
Exhibit
4.30. Stalled Pattern
If
the last two candles are long white ones that make a new high followed by a
small white candle, it is called a stalled pattern (see Exhibit 4.30). It is
also sometimes called a deliberation pattern. The bulls' strength has been at
least temporarily exhausted after this formation. This last small white candle
can either gap away from the long white body (in which case it becomes a star)
or it can be, as the Japanese express it, "riding on the shoulder"
of the long white real body (that is, be at the upper end of the prior long
white real body). The small real body discloses a deterioration of the bulls'
power.
Although
the advance block and stalled patterns are not normally top reversal patterns,
they can sometimes precede a price decline. The advance block and stalled
patterns should be used to liquidate or protect longs, but usually not to
short. They are generally more consequential at higher price levels.
As
shown in Exhibits 4.28 through 6.30, these patterns can be at a low-price area
or during a rally.
There
is not much difference between the advance block and stalled pattern. The main
factor to consider with three white soldiers is that it is most constructive
for each of the three candles to close at or near its highs. If the latter two
white candles show signs of hesitation, either with small real bodies or upper
shadows, then it is a clue that the rally is losing force.
Exhibit
4.31 illustrates almost a classic three white soldiers since each candle,
especially the last two, were relatively strong, opening near their lows and
closing at, or near, their highs. A sign of hesitation came with the doji on
April 23 since it formed a harami cross.
Exhibit
4.32 has a good example of the three white soldiers. Each of the three candle
lines closed very near to the highs of the session and each white candle opened
within or above the prior white candle. An aspect to consider is by the time the
three white soldiers is completed, the market could be well off its lows. In
this case, Microsoft was almost $4 from its lows, a high percentage move.
Consequently, unless one is longer-term bullish, buying at the completion of
these three white soldiers may not present an attractive risk/reward.
I
have found that on corrections, the first or second white candle that started
the three white soldiers is often support. In this example, the stock
consolidated after three white soldiers and slowly pulled back until a hammer
was formed. That tended to confirm support within the second white candle of
the three soldiers.
In
Exhibit 4.33 a base was forming from mid to late June and early July near
$36.50. Then three white soldiers emerged (although they had very small upper
shadows). After the third white soldier, the stock hesitated and corrected to
the first white solider of July 11. This chart again illustrates that the
market may sometimes correct after the three white soldiers. We should expect
support as the stock gets to the second, or especially the first, white
soldier.
An
advance block pattern is illustrated in Exhibit 4.34. Although there were three
relatively tall white candles, the last
Exhibit
4.31. Intel-Daily (Three White Soldiers)
Exhibit
4.32. Microsoft-Daily (Three White Soldiers)
Exhibit
4.33. Praxair-Daily (Three White Soldiers)
Exhibit
4.34. United Health-Daily (Advance Block)
two
had bearish upper shadows. This reflected a stalling of the rally. Indeed, a
series of more upper shadows, labelled as 1 and 2, highlighted this resistance
near $51. The long upper shadow candle at 2 was a shooting star and the next
day completed a bearish engulfing pattern.